2012 Euro Cup semifinals: Italy vs. Germany, Las Vegas odds and decide

The 2012 Euro Cup is down to the last four teams, and when Italy and Germany square off Thursday afternoon they will be playing to take care of the winner with the Spain vs. Portugal game that takes place later today.
Recent history between both of these teams favors Italy, but Germany doesn't care about the past, they are focused on the sport available.
The German squad haven't beaten Italy inside a competitive match.
"We can't reverse time, ignore about this, the read more past doesn't may play a role within our planning," said German Coach Joachim Loew. "Another stat is the fact that Germany hasn't won against Italy in a major tournament, but what exactly?"
Las Vegas odds makers must feel it's time for Germany to win as they are the favorite at -135. The Over/Under number is 2.5.
This game is going to be a tricky, hard fought match. My buddies are telling me that I am going the wrong way with this match, but here it is anyways!
Pick - Italy

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